5 August Global Credit Wrap
More rate vol, commodity prices retreating, OK earnings season, signs of increasing risk appetite in Credit
*TL:DR*
MACRO:
Global rate hikes continues. Both the UK and the RBA hiked rates as expected, BoE is set to sell its Corporate bonds starting Sep 2022.
Credit card debt in the US and UK is surging, meanwhile both countries continue to hike rates…
US NFP came in very hot on Friday, creating more opportunities to range trade 10 year UST/long bonds as market participants debate growth/inflation. 2 year Treasury yields rose more than 30bps on the week.
Global PMI activity fell below 50 for 1st time since June 2020
Maersk lowered its demand guidance towards the lower end of its range
Labour - More strikes in the UK (e.g Felixstowe port, Bus Drivers)
INFLATION / COMMODITIES:
Both major oil price benchmarks trade below their respective 200 DMA
Petrol and Diesel prices coming down in the UK and US
Supply Chains easing? - NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index fell in July to its lowest level since February 2021
The UN FAO Food Price Index averaged 140.9 points in July, down 8.6% from June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline since hitting all-time highs earlier in the year
Musk Sees Inflation Easing, Citing Tesla’s Costs Coming Down
Oil companies continue their material debt reduction (BP, Occidental, EnQuest, Genel updated the markets this week)
NEW ISSUANCE:
More than $56bn in US IG issuance printed this week including new Meta deal (first ever bond deal) and $5.5bn of new Apple bonds
Higher beta markets starting to see more issuance (Converts/US HY/AT1)
This week saw more bullish new issue behaviour (deals being upsized, pricing being tightened, deals trading up in secondary). Haven’t seen this sort of market action for most of this year!
HY:
US HY issuance on Thursday 4 August beat total issuance for whole of July
Results coming out of a number of US HY issuers were better than expected in terms of profitability and/or liquidity positions, vindicating some of the tightening in HY credit spreads
FINANCIALS:
European Banks earnings season going well: “The 10-largest listed banks in the European Union posted a combined profit of 13.9 billion euros, 3rd best of the last 10 years” - BBG
Barclays and Santander issued AT1s this week but Virgin Money and HSBC stated they may not issue AT1s for remainder of 2022
EM:
Lukoil Offers to Buy Back $6.3 Billion Notes to Duck Default
UAE is planning to invest $1bn in Pakistani cos spanning various sectors
Ghana downgraded to CCC+ by S&P, outlook negative
CREDIT TRADING /BUYSIDE:
Tradeweb posted +64% in ADV of Credit derivatives YoY to $12.3bn
CDS volumes have gone up a lot YoY vs cash bond volumes with Macro Traders using the tool to more nimbly express bearish or bullish views. Some popular bond ETFs also seeing higher trading volume YoY according to Blackrock
MarketAxess posted new monthly record for Portfolio Trading in July
Bonds trade reporting time could be cut to 1 minute vs 15 mins currently
Flows: IG Corporate Funds had first weekly inflow since March
Buyside: Apollo’s President likes the idea of earning 9.5%-10.0% as a senior secured lender. Meanwhile, Pimco saw €28.7 in AUM leave in Q2 2022, the second consecutive month of external investor outflows.
RATINGS:
T-Mobile is now fully IG rated from two agencies
Stellantis Upgraded to BBB by Fitch, Outlook Stable
BEHAVIOURAL:
Looking across some key indicators, it appears risk appetite has increased:
Nasdaq +20% from the lows
M&A activity was elevated for what is supposed to be a quiet period for markets, notable M&A deals announced last week:
Pfizer / Global Blood Therapeutics
Amazon/iRobot
Atlas Corp/Consortium of Fairfax, Chairman of ATCO and others
Apollo Group/Atlas Air
Estee Lauder/Tom Ford
Pepsico/Celsius (drinks maker, not the crypto dud)
Aramco/Valvoline
Corporate bond new issue markets appear to be thawing:
US IG - Higher than expected issuance tally this week with $56bn printing
US HY - More deals printed in one day this week ($2bn) than whole of July ($1.8bn)
Sub Financials - Two AT1s issued for Standard Chartered and Barclays respectively
Seeing more upsizing of deals (e.g. Royal Caribbean Convertible, Charter Communications). Seeing more tightening of pricing in primary. Seeing more deals trading up in the secondary.
*MACRO*
Blowout NFP tests recession and pivot narratives!
Better than expected unemployment rate, wage growth and actual payroll figures took most of the market by surprise UST sending yields higher. Fed officials will be feeling better following the print since for most of this week, they have been sticking to the script of continuing rate hikes to bring down inflation.
Other notable US data from the week:
Growth in the US services sector unexpectedly strengthened to a 3-month high in July (services PMI rose to 56.7 above exp of 53.5)
Prices paid and supplier deliveries both declined which indicated improvement in logistics and input costs (prices paid by service providers fell to 72.3, the lowest level since February of last year, from 80.1)
US Mortgage Rates Drop Below 5% for First Time Since April - CNN
Rates hit 4.99%, falling swiftly from 13-year high of 5.81% in June. Combined with the fall in Gas prices, some US consumers could be getting a bit of reprieve.
Global PMI activity fell below 50 for 1st time since June 2020
RBA hiked cash rate to 1.85%, sees Faster Inflation and Wages; Signals More Rate Hikes - BBG
The quantum of the rate hike was in line with expectations, however the commentary from the RBA leaned on the hawkish side:
The RBA reiterated that the rate-setting board is committed “to do what is necessary” to ensure inflation returns to target.
The RBA repeated that the board is seeking to tighten policy “in a way that keeps the economy on an even keel.”
BoE expects to update market on mechanics of Corporate Bond sales on 18 August 2022
BoE is going to start selling corporate bonds held in the APF in the week commencing 19 September. Source: BoE
US Credit card debt surged in Q2 2022
From WAPO: “Credit card balances increased $46 billion in the second quarter, a 5.5% increase from the first quarter, and there was also an uptick in new credit card accounts. The 13% increase from the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022 was the biggest such jump in more than 20 years. “Americans are borrowing more, but a big part of the increased borrowing is attributable to higher prices,” researchers for the New York Fed said in a news release.”
UK Consumer borrowing rocketed in June
The phenomenon of rising consumer debt does not seem to be limited to the US..
Strikes continue to grow in the UK
8 day strike at Felixstowe Port - Guardian
More rail strikes on 13 August - Sky
London Bus Drivers joining in the strikes in August - iNews
Very little is being said by the prospective new leaders of the Government on how they will deal with these strikes…
Maersk adjusts expected demand growth towards lower end of its range
Maersk reported blowout results for Q2, but warned of some signs of slowing of demand.
The number of containers Maersk loaded onto ships declined 7.4% YoY, prompting the company to adjust its expected demand growth toward the lower end of its -1% to 1% estimated range.
Comments from earnings call:
“fundamentally, we cannot escape their the macroeconomic environment which clearly had slower growth, higher inflation, lower consumer confidence.”
“we do expect that we will see a gradual normalization from the fourth quarter towards the end of the year as macro headwinds keep demand down and labor market become less tight.”
However, Maersk still raised its outlook for the year saying it anticipates an underlying EBITDA of around $37 bn and FCF above $24 bn for the year.
In a related note, Container Shipping firm Atlas Corp, which provides containers to Liners such as Maersk had a bid from its largest shareholders during this week.
*INFLATION / COMMODITIES*
Both major oil benchmarks closed the week trading below their respective 200 DMA
At time of writing (Fri morning UK time), Brent Crude is down nearly 15% over 5 days and WTI over 10% over same period. In terms of beneficiaries; oil importing nations like India, Turkey and more distressed nations like Pakistan/Sri Lanka may experience a temporary reprieve. In the corporate space, freightliners and Airlines are likely to benefit due to lower input costs.
US Gas prices have fallen for 53rd consecutive day - Gas Buddy
Morrisons Cuts UK Petrol Prices, Joining Tesco and Sainsbury - BBG
Extract :”Morrisons lowered petrol prices across the UK, the latest supermarket to reduce costs for motorists amid a historic squeeze in living standards. The price of unleaded petrol and diesel will fall by an average of 6 pence a liter, the company said in a statement. It follows similar moves by big retailers including Tesco Plc, Asda and J Sainsbury Plc after weeks of criticism that supermarkets had kept rates too high by not passing on the recent decline in wholesale fuel prices. “
Musk Sees Inflation Easing, Citing Tesla’s Costs Coming Down - Yahoo Finance
Extract:
“Speaking at the electric-vehicle maker’s annual shareholder meeting, Musk said Tesla’s commodity and component costs are trending downward over the next six months. He also reiterated that he expects a mild recession that could last 18 months. “The trend is down, which suggests we are past peak inflation,” Musk said at Tesla’s Austin headquarters and factory. “I think inflation is going to drop rapidly” at some point in the future, he said.
Supply chains easing - Sam Ro blog (superb)
UK’s Ofgem has confirmed that the energy price cap will be updated quarterly, rather than every six months - Statement
This may provide some help to struggling UK consumers who have to deal with surging energy costs. Extract:
“Today (Thursday 4 August 2022) Ofgem has confirmed that the energy price cap will be updated quarterly, rather than every six months, as it warned that customers face a very challenging winter ahead. Today’s change will go some way to provide the stability needed in the energy market, reducing the risk of further large-scale supplier failures which cause huge disruption and push up costs for consumers. It is not in anyone’s interests for more suppliers to fail and exit the market. “
Solar Polysilicon Price Highest Since October 2011 due to increased demand for Solar
*IG*
BP debt highlights from Q2 2022 earnings
BP's `Exceptional' Trading Lifts Profit to 14-Year High
At the end of the second quarter, net debt was $22.8 billion, compared with $27.5 billion at the end of the first quarter 2022 and $32.7 billion at the end of the second quarter 2021.
Year to date the group has bought back a total of $4.5 billion of finance debt.
Net debt fell for the ninth successive quarter to reach $22.8 billion at the end of the second quarter.
*HY*
European Airlines report strong figures
Ryanair exceeded pre-Covid passenger numbers by 2 million in July: July Traffic data also showed that load factor improved to 96%. Some two million more people travelled vs the same month of 2019 and 0.9 million up on the previous all-time record seen in June this year. Flightglobal
Norwegian Air carried 2.2m passengers – the highest since the pandemic outbreak. The load factor was 94.5% - the highest in several years.
Lufthansa reported load factors in premium classes above 2019 levels - Business Traveller
Royal Caribbean issues upsized convertible bond to take out near term debt
Royal Caribbean hit the convertible market to refinance some upcoming convertible maturities. I believe this is another piece of evidence showing that funding markets are improving, albeit at a high cost to the issuer.
Issue size: $1bn
Coupon: 6%
Maturity: 2025
Other features: 13-day option to purchase up to an additional $150 million aggregate principal amount of the Convertible Notes.
UoP: Repurchase $350mm of 2.875% 2023 notes and $800m of its 4.25% June 2023 converts
Tradewinds has more on the topic.
Occidental to cut debt and distribute cash, won't raise oil output - 10Q
Occidental Repaid $4.8bn of debt, representing 19% of total outstanding principal. In Q2, Oxy repaid debt with maturities ranging from 2024 through 2049 and a face value of $4.8bn. As of June 30, 2022, Oxy had approximately $1.4bn of cash and cash equivalents on hand. Through the date of this filing, Oxy has drawn no amounts under its RCF, which has $4.0bn of borrowing capacity and matures in June 2025. Additionally, Oxy has up to $400m of available borrowing capacity on its receivables securitization facility which matures in December 2024. There were no amounts outstanding on Oxy's receivable securitization facility as of June 30, 2022.
Transocean (RIG) - Contract wins + extension of revolver; bonds soar on news
Transocean surprised the market by announcing two new drilling contracts worth more than $1bn and also an extension of the company’s revolver from 2023 to 2025 which offered further breathing room. RIG ended the second quarter with total liquidity of approximately $2.5bn, including unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of approximately $729 million, approximately $400 million of restricted cash for debt service and $1.3bn from its undrawn revolving credit facility. The earnings release made S&P’s downgrade of RIG from CCC to CCC- in July look premature. RIG’s bonds were said to be up anywhere between 2 and 5pts post announcement. Their earnings call transcript is worth a read: Fool.com
Avis broke records in Q2 2022 for Revenue and EBITDA
Extracts from a strong statement:
“We ended the quarter with revenues 37% above second quarter 2021, at $3.2 billion, making it our best quarter revenue in Company history. Our revenues were driven by continued strong demand and increased revenue per day.
Net income was $774 million and our Adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion, our best quarterly net income and Adjusted EBITDA in our history.
Our liquidity position at the end of the quarter was approximately $850 million, with an additional $1.9 billion of fleet funding capacity. We have well-laddered corporate debt and no meaningful maturities until 2024.”
EnQuest (North Sea Oil Co) - Reports leverage ratio of 1.0x in Operations update
EnQuest said 1H output at its Kraken oil field was above the top end of full-year guidance.
Strong free cash-flow in the period allowed accelerated debt repayment, with net debt dropping $342M to $880M, including a buyback of $14.4m of 2023 USD high-yield bonds. Group continues to explore options to refinance its high yield bond ahead of maturity in October 2023.
At the end of June, $115m remained outstanding on the Group's senior secured debt facility ('RBL') following accelerated repayments totalling $300m in the six months to end June 2022.
Net debt/EBITDA ratio dropped to c1.0x from 1.6x
EnQuest went on to say that it “may, from time to time, purchase its outstanding notes in open-market purchases and/or privately negotiated transactions and upon such terms and at such prices as it may determine…”
AMC Q2 - Reported cash position of ~$1.0 bn | Odeon TL being negotiated
The 10Q report also had a snippet re its 11.25% Odeon Term Loan which it appears to be currently negotiating:
“The 11.25% Odeon Term Loan due 2023 matures on August 19, 2023 during the third fiscal quarter of the Company’s next calendar year. The Company is currently negotiating terms of new debt intended to refinance the existing £147.6 million and €312.2 million aggregate principal amounts of Odeon Term Loan due 2023.”
Bombardier - Significant YoY improvement in FCF
Editor: I don’t follow this name closely, but its a big issuer in the HY space, hence the mention. Also speaks to the generally better than expected results of most HY issuers this reporting season…
Extract of statement: “Bombardier raised 2022 full-year guidance on free cash flow, now expected to be greater than $515 million for the year vs greater than $50 million, based on stronger working capital performance and increased interest cost savings from accelerated deleveraging;
Balance sheet strengthening through progress on deleveraging with $373 million debt reduction during the second quarter of 2022 using cash on hand. Adjusted liquidity(1) stands strong at $1.8 billion with cash and cash equivalents of $1.4 billion.
Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Bombardier’s corporate family and senior unsecured notes rating to B3. Outlook maintained as stable.”
*CHINA*
HSBC Fixed Income earnings call - Snippets on China Property exposure:
Investor presentation highlights:
Mainland China CRE exposure of $19.8bn decreased $1.5bn (7%) vs. 4Q21,
There was a $142m charge to Expected Credit Losses (“ECL”) “reflecting further developments in mainland China’s CRE market”
HSBC’s overall ECL charge was 0.17 at end of 2Q22 and they see that normalising towards 30bps in FY22.
In terms of the overall loan portfolio, HSBC stated that “signs of portfolio stress are not yet visible in early warning indicators”
Comments on China Property in conf call:
…sector came under stress from the second half of last year and we've taken cumulatively around $900 million of provisions, on average $300 million in the first half of the year and that $116 million this quarter as some medium-sized developers go into Stage 3 and so it's fair to say that is obviously going through some issues at the moment.
On how it thinks Chinese authorities will handle the issues:
“However, the Chinese authorities are trying to stabilize the issue in terms of the developments and then and look at CRE fund or fund of that nature. “
“…we think the Chinese authorities will resolve it but I think it will take some time. I think this will take some time to resolve over the coming year or two. “
*FINANCIALS*
European Bank Earnings - one of the best quarters of the last decade (BBG)
This one was a handy little round up by BBG, summarised below:
European Banks had one of their best quarters of the last decade
15 of the region’s top 20 lenders beat analysts’ profit estimates
10-largest listed banks in the European Union posted a combined profit of 13.9 billion euros, 3rd best of the last 10 years
Firms benefited as anticipation of the European Central Bank’s first rate hike since 2011 started to drive up lending margins and prompted clients to hedge trading positions, while loan books remained resilient.
"Demand for positioning on the financial institutions side or hedging on the corporate side has soared" - Head of Soc Gen Investment Bank stated
Trading businesses largely made up for weakness in advising on deals and capital raisings
Two AT1s priced this week - highlighting increased risk appetite
Standard Chartered and Barclays issued AT1s this week:
Barclays raised $2bn NC7 AT1 to yield 8%
Standard Chartered raised US$ 1.25bn via NC5.5 AT1 to yield 7.75%.
Both issues were tightened in from initial pricing talk. The issuers raised in the Dollar market, presumably due to greater depth. Notably, HSBC, Lloyds and Barclays all issued in Dollars in senior format…again possibly tapping into Asian/Middle East/US demand that comes with USD.
HSBC unlikely to refinance any 2022 redemptions of its AT1s - F.I Presentation
Source: HSBC F.I Presentation
Virgin Money does not anticipate any further AT1, T2 or Senior Unsec. issuance over remainder of 2022
This was according to its Q3 trading update released this week:
“…the IFRS9 transitional MREL ratio improved to 31.9% (Q2: 31.7%), representing a prudent buffer over the Group’s 2022 MREL (plus buffers) requirement of 24.7% of RWAs (based on June-22 Pillar 2A), with no further AT1, Tier 2 or Senior Unsecured issuance anticipated over the remainder of 2022.””
Active week for Bank liability management
Lloyds, HSBC and Natwest were all out this week with debt tender offers for legacy bonds. As an example, Lloyds is looking to take out some OPCO Tier 2 paper. Their various fixed income investor slide decks released this week highlight their respective issuance plans.
*EM*
Brazil: Central Bank hiked the Selic Rate by 50bps to 13.75% in line with expectations
UAE is planning to invest $1 bn in Pakistani companies spanning various sectors - BBG
Extract: “The investments will cover fields including gas, energy infrastructure, renewable energy, health care, biotechnology, agricultural technology, logistics, digital communications, e-commerce and financial services, newsagency WAM said.”
Lukoil Offers to Buy Back $6.3 Billion Notes to Duck Default - BBG
Extract: “Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s second-biggest oil producer, has launched an offer to buy back $6.3 billion of notes -- all its outstanding bonds -- to avoid any block to its payments to foreign holders, which could trigger a potential default.”
Vedanta fully redeemed the remaining US$532mm outstanding of the VEDLN 6.375% 22s on 30th July 2022
Genel (Kurdish oil name) reported a net cash position of $141m as at end of Q2 2022
Further colour re debt position: “The Company has reported cash of $412.1 million, with no debt maturing until the second half of 2025 and significant headroom on both the equity ratio and minimum liquidity financial covenants. The strength of the balance sheet is expected to be enhanced through 2022 and into 2023.”
Gulfkeystone Petroleum becomes debt free after redeeming its $100mm 2023 bond
Kurdish E&P firm listed on LSE.
*RATINGS*
Moody's cuts Italy's outlook to 'negative' from 'stable'
Nigeria Affirmed at B- by S&P
Angola Affirmed at B- by S&P
Ghana Downgraded to CCC+ by S&P, Outlook Negative
S&P Raises T-Mobile US Inc. Rtg To BBB- From BB+; Off Watch; Outlk Pos
X-S&PGR Upgrades Global Ship Lease Inc. To 'BB'; Outlook Stable
Stellantis Upgraded to BBB by Fitch, Outlook Stable
X-S&PGR Affirms Swiss Re Ltd. At 'AA-'; Outlook Remains Negative
X-S&PGR Upgrades Prologis Inc. To 'A'; Outlook Stable
Lennar Affirmed at BBB by Fitch
Fitch Affirms PulteGroup's IDR at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable
Sino-Ocean is the latest Chinese developer to become a fallen angel
*ESG*
United Airlines’s MSCI ESG Rating Raised to BB from B
*CREDIT TRADING / BUYSIDE*
US IG Bonds - First weekly inflow since March
Tradeweb - Trading Volume of $22.0Tn in July with 12.0% YoY Increase in ADV
Highlights from the release on Credit Trading:
Fully electronic U.S. Credit ADV was up 16.2% YoY to $3.6bn
European credit ADV was down 29.3% YoY (down 19.4% YoY in EUR terms) to $1.4bn. U.S. High Grade activity was buoyed by a pick-up in portfolio trading, while heightened volatility weighed on overall market activity in U.S. High Yield and European credit.
Tradeweb captured fully electronic share of U.S. High Grade and U.S. High Yield TRACE of 13.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
Record institutional volume and a resurgence in retail activity continued to drive growth.
Credit derivatives ADV was up 64.4% YoY to $12.3bn. Market-wide volatility continued to boost volumes overall.
People seem to be using Bond ETFs and CDS more & more to express views in F.I:
MarketAxess - $31.1bn total ADV | +31% YoY | Release
Highlights:
$31.1bn in total trading average daily volume (“ADV”), up 31%, driven by a 49% increase in U.S. Treasury ADV to $20.3bn and an 8% increase in total credit ADV to $10.6bn.
U.S. high-grade ADV of $4.7bn, up 1%; secondary trading of high-grade new issues within one week of issuance represented an estimated 10% of the high-grade TRACE market in July, up from 6% in the prior year.
U.S. high-yield ADV of $1.6bn, up 19%; estimated market share of 18.6%, up from 16.4%.
Emerging markets ADV of $2.6bn, up 4%; up 9% excluding the impact of foreign currency fluctuations with estimated market ADV down 10%.
Eurobond ADV of $1.2bn, up 3%; up 20% excluding the impact of foreign currency fluctuations with estimated market ADV down 23%.
Open Trading® represented 36% of total credit trading volume; 92% of credit volume on the platform was executed by institutional clients.
Record $10bn in Portfolio Trading volume, surpassing the previous monthly record of $8bn in May of 2022.
Bond Trade Reporting - US Regulators look at reducing window to 1 minute
Current reporting window is within 15 minutes
Reduction was suggested by SEC Chari Gensler in April
Benefit would be more transparency for bond market participants. However it could also lead to more “broking” of bonds since dealers owning inventory would be more exposed as large trades print more immediately for all to see. BBG
Pimco - Sees €28.7bn leave in Q2 following Q1 outflows
Investors withdrew 28.7 bn euros from Pimco in the three months through June, parent Allianz SE said this week. BBG take and Allianz's data
Apollo’s President Zelter compares RV of public and private HY markets
Extract of BBG article: [RE US HY] Spreads at 600 basis points are typically a buy signal, but were around there for a short period of time, he said. “They’re on the richer side of fair value than they are the attractive side of fair value, but I think it’s interesting to contrast that to the private markets right now,” Zelter said.
Lenders such as Apollo can be part of a club in private credit with spreads at 650 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, or a yield in the 9.5% to 10% range, at a high-quality first lien position at the top of the capital structure, Zelter said.
“That’s an interesting marketplace, and we’re open, we’ve been active,” he added.
Zelter noted the recent rally does not mean credit markets are completely open to new transactions. “The IG market’s open, but the lower quality high-yield market’s still very few transactions are getting done, very few new commitments are being made on buyouts,” he said.”
Zelter also namedropped a transaction Apollo had done in the LNG space to highlight their strength vs traditional providers of capital:
Apollo invested in a joint-venture with New Fortress Energy Inc. for 11 liquid natural gas infrastructure vessels. “We provided the equity, but the bank market was shut,” Zelter said of the transaction. “Typically most folks would have to put their pencil down. We really marshaled our resources and raised a billion for financing to have a successful transaction.”
Vanguard poised to usurp BlackRock as manager of largest bond ETF -FT
BND fund has had net inflows of $6.9bn this year while iShares’ AGG has bled $815mn. People interviewed in the article suggest that holder bases of Vanguard Funds are different (more buy and hold) to Blackrock holders (more tactical traders).
*LINKS/TWEETS*
Earnings scorecard
Credit sector inflows - Nice looking chart on the left
Busted Convertibles - Nice chart
Rate hike roll-call
Sri Lanka - #Reform now conference by Advocata
Those interested in Sri Lanka may find this talk useful as there are speeches from the current SL President who gives his views on how to get out of the current crisis. More useful is the in-depth discussion with Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhop (former Governor of the Bank of Thailand) and how Thailand worked its way out of the Asian Crisis in 1997.
Note: SL President Ranil begins speaking at 29:00 minutes and the fireside chat about Thailand begins 57 mins into the presentation.